Last month the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) wrote to Findlay Carson MSP Convenor of the Scottish Parliament Rural Affairs Committee spelling out the brutal fact that Scotland would need to slash dairy, beef, and sheep numbers by 29%, 26%, and 26% respectively to meet the Scottish Governments world leading net zero target.
At a stroke it fatally undermined the Scottish governments pretence that their target would not lead to cutting cow numbers.
The CCC also pointed out that farming accounts for 20% of Scotland’s emissions and while other sectors had a clear path to decarbonising, agriculture does not have a plan.
They warned that unless action is taken agriculture will be the biggest carbon emitter in Scotland by 2045.
On the plus side they recognise there needs to be a sustainable intensification of lowland farming with increased stocking densities and better grassland management to allow land to be taken out of production.
Livestock numbers would be capped to stop farmers increasing cow numbers.
The CCC chief executive Chris Stark stated quite bluntly that there is an urgent need for Scottish agriculture policy to encourage farmers to cut emissions swiftly and deeply as currently there is no credible plan to meet these goals.
It is now four years since the Scottish government set its climate targets and yet farm minister Marie Gougeon has completely failed to develop a new agriculture policy.
In many ways the drastic situation facing Scottish farmers highlights everything that was wrong with the way former FM Nicola Sturgeon governed.
In 2019 she declared a climate crisis and claimed Scotland would lead by example in setting a legal target of net zero by 2045.
She claimed Scotland was a world leader on climate action but underneath all the grandstanding and bluster it is now clear she had no idea how to achieve it.
Even worse she ignored warnings from her officials and her Farm Minister Fergus Ewing that such an ambitious target could be the death knell of livestock production in Scotland.
Of course, the target is world leading as no other country was stupid enough to follow suit.
Most took a cautious approach recognising how incredibly difficult it would be to achieve large carbon reductions and plumped for 2050.
What has surprised me is the total silence from the NFUS and many other industry leaders to this damming letter from the CCC.
Last week Kate Rowell Chair of QMS was asked at the Rural Affairs Committee meeting to explain why the CCC persisted in saying Scotland had to cut red meat production and help farmers leave the industry to meet climate targets.
She had no answer.
She fell back on the economic arguments and suggested the science on methane was still a bit dodgy and therefore it would be a mistake to go down the route the CCC were proposing.
Kate claimed there was many things going on in the industry to mitigate emissions but could not point to an alternative plan that clearly showed how the industry would reduce emissions.
Industry leaders seem to believe the warm words and bland assurances that she has no plans to cut livestock numbers from farm minister Marie Gougeon will make the threat disappear.
I am sorry but that is rather naïve.
No amount of warm words from the minister can cover up the fact that the carbon reduction targets are enshrined in law and the chances of changing the law are nil.
You only have to look at the plight of Dutch livestock farmers to realise how serious the threat is to the future of livestock production from environmental targets.
Over 10 years ago the Dutch Government set a target to cut nitrogen and ammonia emissions by 50% by 2030 and set out a plan to achieve it.
In 2019 a Dutch green campaigner Johan Vollenbroek took the Dutch Government to the highest court in the land, and the judges struck down the Governments nitrogen plan as not being ambitious enough to achieve their target.
As a result, the Dutch government was forced to produce a new plan.
At the heart of it is the compulsory closure of 3000 livestock farms and £1.4 billion of compensation money to buy farmers out.
In Scotland green campaigners could easily copy Johan Vollenbroek and take the government to court for failing to meet its own environmental targets.
Given the Minister does not even have plan there is a good chance they would win.
Surely it is time for some honesty from Marie Gougeon about the impact her governments climate targets will have on the farming industry.
The pretence that everything will work out fine has to stop and tough questions about the future of our industry and the jobs and livelihoods that go with it need answered now.
It is also time our industry leaders followed the lead of other sectors and produced a coherent plan to reduce emissions.
The Highland Show would be the perfect opportunity for some straight talking from Marie Gougeon on this matter, but I would not hold my breath.
