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Opinion: Common Agricultural Policy likely to remain for three more years

George Lyon
George Lyon

The Brexit bombshell has left Brussels reeling as I discovered this week.

I spoke to MEPs, Commissioners, officials and none of them had thought the UK would be foolish enough to vote to leave.

They were stunned by the political carnage the vote had unleashed in the UK with the Prime Minister resigning and the opposition at war with one another.

Some remarked that we were beginning to make Greece look like a well-run country.

Many colleagues from other countries were sad, some were angry but many were deeply concerned that the same forces could be unleashed in their own country.

Above all the question everyone was asking was “what happens next?”

By the end of the week some of the answers were beginning to emerge.

The initial angry reaction from other EU countries was to tell the UK to pack its bags and leave as quickly as possible.

However, it was clear from Chancellor Merkel’s comments and what many MEPs were saying privately to me that there should be a pause before the Exit button of Article 50 was triggered.

Once Article 50 is set in motion a two-year time frame for the exit negotiations to be completed comes into play.

That can be extended by unanimous agreement of the 27 member states.

It is now also clear that the negotiations to leave and the negotiations on the new relationship with the EU post Brexit would run concurrently.

So what does all this mean for Scottish farmers?

What we can say with some certainty is that the Common Agricultural Policy (Cap), EU rules and unfettered access to EU export markets will remain in force until negotiations are complete.

Hopefully once the backstabbing is over we will have a new Prime Minister in September.

He or she will then want to take some time to agree what the UK negotiating position will be on Brexit before triggering Article 50.

That probably means November/December 2016 or possibly later for the negotiations to begin and be finished within two years.

No one in Brussels however believes that the negotiations can be done in that short timescale so it is a safe bet the timetable will be extended possibly to the end of 2019.

So farmers can at least plan on the basis of the status quo continuing for the next three years.

However it is now vital the farm unions start drawing up a list of farming priorities they want the UK Government to secure in the negotiations.

Top of that list must be unfettered access to EU markets, continued recognition of our PGI labels such as Scotch Beef and Scotch Lamb and free access for Eastern European workers who are vital to our fruit and vegetable sector.

They also need a Government promise that agriculture’s interests will be a top priority when they re-negotiate the fifty plus trade deals the EU currently has with third countries.

At the same time they also need to start planning for a new Scottish Cap to come into force in 2019.

Even more importantly will be the battle to replace the £500million of EU support Scottish farmers currently enjoy with funding from our own governments both north and south of the border.

So in the short term some certainty for the industry, but in the medium to long term there are major battles to be won to secure a prosperous future for Scottish agriculture.

* George Lyon is a former Liberal Democrat MEP. He works as a senior consultant for Hume Brophy and sits on the board of levy body organisation AHDB